When it comes to wheat we’re pretty lucky in these parts. We’re coming off a very successful winter wheat season and followed that up with almost a million acres seeded for next year.
Not everyone in the world is as optimistic about this crop as farmers here apparently are. In fact, in some areas folks are openly questioning its future. Weather challenges are taking their toll and growers say it’s just not as profitable as it used to be. Out in Manitoba this year, a lot of growers got only about half a crop. And Russia’s heat wave this summer took a 40 per cent bite out of the crop in some of the major growing areas there.
Add in the evolving threat of a new race of stem rust that has spread across east Africa and the Middle East and is now threatening Pakistan’s nine million-hectare crop.
It’s prompted the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization to call an emergency meeting this fall to discuss declining wheat production and the inevitable impact on food prices, especially in the developing world. They say that, while the world’s population is increasing at a rate of 1.5 per cent a year, wheat production per hectare has declined at almost the same rate.
There is an inherent belief in the agricultural community that rising prices can cure any supply problem. Unfortunately economic theory doesn’t account for weather and disease issues. And that’s what’s hurting production, not an unwillingness by farmers to grow the crop.
Consider this possibility: what if the heat wave that struck Russia had been centered over the U.S. Midwest? Some analysts are saying that, even with the most stress-tolerant varieties, a 40 per cent yield reduction would have amounted to a loss of 160 million tons of grain. Can you imagine the impact on world grain markets?
Economists have been telling us for a while now that volatility will be the norm in crop markets in the foreseeable future. After what we’ve witnessed the past couple of years, chances are we ain’t seen nothing yet.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Monday, September 20, 2010
Beyond the obvious
My apologies for the rather infrequent updates lately. Sometimes life gets in the way. I’ll try to do better.
Just had a look at the Ontario weather statistics for this growing season and two things struck me: the remarkable heat unit accumulation and also how deceptive statistics can be.
On the CHU side, nothing surprising. We’re running well ahead of the 30-year average. Starting on May 1 and up to Sept. 7, Windsor has enjoyed 3557 CHUs compared to the 30-year average of 3295. London stood at 3132 compared to 2882, Woodstock was 2914 compared to 2895, and Elora was at 2949 compared to 2745 long-term. Hamilton, Trenton and Ottawa are all at or close to 3100 CHUs. What a year to grow some longer-day crops. But, if my guess is right, a lot of growers decided to cut back on their maturities following the drydown scare of 2009. Oh well, at least the drying bill should be a lot more tolerable this time around.
While the heat unit side of the statistics held few surprises, the rainfall stats are quite remarkable. Right across Ontario they’re showing a year that had an above average amount of rainfall. For example, Windsor received over 500 mm of rain from May to Sept. 7. Normally that area gets about 375. London was 70 mm ahead of the long-term average, Hamilton almost 100 mm, Mount Forest an amazing 210 mm ahead and Ottawa about 50mm.
But those stats only give a running total. They tell us very little of when the rain fell. Looking at my own area – between London and Strathroy – we got lots of rain – some 14 inches in fact – between May 1 and July 24. That’s when the tap turned off. We got less than an inch over the next seven weeks, most of that in little dribs and drabs. We’ve had maybe another inch in the past week or so. There are a lot of sandy loams around here and the corn and soybeans just shut down by the start of September. I know some other areas have been just as dry – maybe more so.
Will it affect yield? Some early harvests from Lambton County to the west suggest it will. Soys that could have run in the high 50s are coming off at between 35 and 45. If the crop was planted early, chances are it finished development before the drought had an impact and yields should be okay. The later-planted fields are a different story.
That’s why statistics can be so deceiving. To someone casually looking at the numbers it would appear to have been an ideal growing season: lots or heat and rain. Why are those farmers whining? But look a little closer and, in some areas, the story is quite different.
Just had a look at the Ontario weather statistics for this growing season and two things struck me: the remarkable heat unit accumulation and also how deceptive statistics can be.
On the CHU side, nothing surprising. We’re running well ahead of the 30-year average. Starting on May 1 and up to Sept. 7, Windsor has enjoyed 3557 CHUs compared to the 30-year average of 3295. London stood at 3132 compared to 2882, Woodstock was 2914 compared to 2895, and Elora was at 2949 compared to 2745 long-term. Hamilton, Trenton and Ottawa are all at or close to 3100 CHUs. What a year to grow some longer-day crops. But, if my guess is right, a lot of growers decided to cut back on their maturities following the drydown scare of 2009. Oh well, at least the drying bill should be a lot more tolerable this time around.
While the heat unit side of the statistics held few surprises, the rainfall stats are quite remarkable. Right across Ontario they’re showing a year that had an above average amount of rainfall. For example, Windsor received over 500 mm of rain from May to Sept. 7. Normally that area gets about 375. London was 70 mm ahead of the long-term average, Hamilton almost 100 mm, Mount Forest an amazing 210 mm ahead and Ottawa about 50mm.
But those stats only give a running total. They tell us very little of when the rain fell. Looking at my own area – between London and Strathroy – we got lots of rain – some 14 inches in fact – between May 1 and July 24. That’s when the tap turned off. We got less than an inch over the next seven weeks, most of that in little dribs and drabs. We’ve had maybe another inch in the past week or so. There are a lot of sandy loams around here and the corn and soybeans just shut down by the start of September. I know some other areas have been just as dry – maybe more so.
Will it affect yield? Some early harvests from Lambton County to the west suggest it will. Soys that could have run in the high 50s are coming off at between 35 and 45. If the crop was planted early, chances are it finished development before the drought had an impact and yields should be okay. The later-planted fields are a different story.
That’s why statistics can be so deceiving. To someone casually looking at the numbers it would appear to have been an ideal growing season: lots or heat and rain. Why are those farmers whining? But look a little closer and, in some areas, the story is quite different.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Glyphosate resistance coming to a field near you
Anyone who still thinks that glyphosate resistance is mostly a problem for U.S. farmers should have a chat with University of Guelph weed researcher Dr. Peter Sikkema.
Sikkema and his university colleagues last year confirmed Ontario's first case of resistance- a patch of giant ragweed in an Essec County field. Since then he's become convinced that the problem is a lot bigger than one species in one small area. One of his grad students has been collecting giant ragweed seed from all over the county and concluded that resistance is becoming more widespread.
And giant ragweed may not be the only problem. Sikkema is now convinced that we also have resistant Canada fleabane in the province. What convinced him? The fact that a farmer found the weed still alive after two litres of glyphosate - normally a half litre will fry it. And the fact that researchers applied up to another eight litres to the same weeds without much ill effect.
Yes, there is still a scientific protocol to follow before something can be "officially" called resistant. But if it looks and walks like a duck...
Sikkema's key message to producers is: don't assume the problem is somewhere else. Start using multiple modes of action now to keep the problem from gettign worse. And to help us protect what is arguably our most valuable weed control tool.
Also heard from OMAFRA field crops entomologist Tracey Baute who's telling edible bean farmers to check their fields for pod feeding damage from Western bean cutworm. This may be the critical week. Since there is no reliable threshold, the message is: if you see pod feeding, spray. Once the larvae get into the pods and begin feeding on the seed, they're protected from the spray and you'll be left with a lot of pick.
Matador is registered for WBC control, she says. Cygon doesn't work.
Sikkema and his university colleagues last year confirmed Ontario's first case of resistance- a patch of giant ragweed in an Essec County field. Since then he's become convinced that the problem is a lot bigger than one species in one small area. One of his grad students has been collecting giant ragweed seed from all over the county and concluded that resistance is becoming more widespread.
And giant ragweed may not be the only problem. Sikkema is now convinced that we also have resistant Canada fleabane in the province. What convinced him? The fact that a farmer found the weed still alive after two litres of glyphosate - normally a half litre will fry it. And the fact that researchers applied up to another eight litres to the same weeds without much ill effect.
Yes, there is still a scientific protocol to follow before something can be "officially" called resistant. But if it looks and walks like a duck...
Sikkema's key message to producers is: don't assume the problem is somewhere else. Start using multiple modes of action now to keep the problem from gettign worse. And to help us protect what is arguably our most valuable weed control tool.
Also heard from OMAFRA field crops entomologist Tracey Baute who's telling edible bean farmers to check their fields for pod feeding damage from Western bean cutworm. This may be the critical week. Since there is no reliable threshold, the message is: if you see pod feeding, spray. Once the larvae get into the pods and begin feeding on the seed, they're protected from the spray and you'll be left with a lot of pick.
Matador is registered for WBC control, she says. Cygon doesn't work.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Armyworm are marching again
Got a crop update from Syngenta Seeds agronomist Deb Campbell yesterday about fall armyworm showing up across a wide area of Grey, Perth, Oxford, Huron and Simcoe Counties.
She says numbers are low and the larvae are small but they're and are being found in a widespread swath across the Midwest District.
The crops that are most at risk are corn and forage grasses. Fortunately the corn is well advanced and already half-way through the grain fill period. That means any defoliation wouldn't cause a major yield impact.
But Campbell says fall armyworm can also get into the ear to do their feeding - something that would be a much bigger problem.
She is advising growers to check for these pests, take action if necessary but keep an eye out for any biological controls that might be working. That's one thing about getting a lot of rain - it may benefit from beneficial fungi that keep pest larvae in check.
With soybean harvest and winter wheat seeding not too far off, growers may be thinking about what varieties to plant this fall. I'm hearing that premiums for white wheat are still available but they're not as lucrative as last year. Instead of the $1/bu premium it may be more like 60 or 65 cents. Make sure you check with some elevators to get an exact quote.
She says numbers are low and the larvae are small but they're and are being found in a widespread swath across the Midwest District.
The crops that are most at risk are corn and forage grasses. Fortunately the corn is well advanced and already half-way through the grain fill period. That means any defoliation wouldn't cause a major yield impact.
But Campbell says fall armyworm can also get into the ear to do their feeding - something that would be a much bigger problem.
She is advising growers to check for these pests, take action if necessary but keep an eye out for any biological controls that might be working. That's one thing about getting a lot of rain - it may benefit from beneficial fungi that keep pest larvae in check.
With soybean harvest and winter wheat seeding not too far off, growers may be thinking about what varieties to plant this fall. I'm hearing that premiums for white wheat are still available but they're not as lucrative as last year. Instead of the $1/bu premium it may be more like 60 or 65 cents. Make sure you check with some elevators to get an exact quote.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Western bean cutworm pressure builds
Don’t let coffee shop stories about high Western bean cutworm push you into spraying corn or edible beans without at least knowing what you have and what stage of development the little critters are at.
That’s the advice from OMAFRA field crops entomologist Tracey Baute, who called this week to put out an alert about the high number of WBC found across the province this summer. Just like everyone predicted, numbers are continuing to build like they have in Michigan and other nearby states in recent years. So far scouts have trapped more cutworm than in all of last year. And Baute expects peak flight to continue through this week and next.
For some growers that will mean having to spray an insecticide to protect their crop. But if you spray when populations are below threshold or before the timing is right you could be wasting your insecticide dollars and maybe have to do it all over again, she warns.
There are fields at threshold levels in the Strathroy and Bothwell area. But even here, egg laying can vary significantly from one field to the next.
Baute’s rule of thumb is to check five plants at about 20 locations throughout the field. If five of those 100 plants have egg masses, it’s time to spray, she says. The focus should be on later-planted field that are not yet in full tassel.
But make sure you spray when the young larvae are out and before they make it into the ear, where they’re protected from the insecticide. Look at the colour of the eggs. White means they were just laid. If they’re tan-coloured they’re about five days from hatching. Purple means hatching is imminent, Baute, explains. At that point you have about a week-long window before the larvae move into the ear.
It will be tougher to scout edible beans – where WBC go after the corn starts tasseling - because even experienced scouts have a hard time finding eggs on those plants. Baute says the best approach is to look at nearby corn field to assess WBC pressure and then check the beans for pod feeding. Don’t spray before you see pod damage because that’s the only way you know that the little larvae are out on the plants.
If you spray too early, you may miss the larvae and have to repeat the application.
As a rule of thumb, she says, you should see pod feeding within 10 to 20 days after peak flight in a given area.
More information and complete scouting guidelines can be found at bautebugblog.com
That’s the advice from OMAFRA field crops entomologist Tracey Baute, who called this week to put out an alert about the high number of WBC found across the province this summer. Just like everyone predicted, numbers are continuing to build like they have in Michigan and other nearby states in recent years. So far scouts have trapped more cutworm than in all of last year. And Baute expects peak flight to continue through this week and next.
For some growers that will mean having to spray an insecticide to protect their crop. But if you spray when populations are below threshold or before the timing is right you could be wasting your insecticide dollars and maybe have to do it all over again, she warns.
There are fields at threshold levels in the Strathroy and Bothwell area. But even here, egg laying can vary significantly from one field to the next.
Baute’s rule of thumb is to check five plants at about 20 locations throughout the field. If five of those 100 plants have egg masses, it’s time to spray, she says. The focus should be on later-planted field that are not yet in full tassel.
But make sure you spray when the young larvae are out and before they make it into the ear, where they’re protected from the insecticide. Look at the colour of the eggs. White means they were just laid. If they’re tan-coloured they’re about five days from hatching. Purple means hatching is imminent, Baute, explains. At that point you have about a week-long window before the larvae move into the ear.
It will be tougher to scout edible beans – where WBC go after the corn starts tasseling - because even experienced scouts have a hard time finding eggs on those plants. Baute says the best approach is to look at nearby corn field to assess WBC pressure and then check the beans for pod feeding. Don’t spray before you see pod damage because that’s the only way you know that the little larvae are out on the plants.
If you spray too early, you may miss the larvae and have to repeat the application.
As a rule of thumb, she says, you should see pod feeding within 10 to 20 days after peak flight in a given area.
More information and complete scouting guidelines can be found at bautebugblog.com
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Planning ahead
Farmers can be among the strongest critics of climate change claims. Yet one would think that a little open-mindedness might be in order here, considering that farming may be the most weather-dependent of all professions. No management decision made during the growing season ever has as much impact as the weather.
Let’s put all scientific arguing aside for a minute. Let’s just assume that those who believe rising “greenhouse gas” levels are changing our climate are correct. Those climate change models have already predicted more extreme weather: infrequent but severe drought, more intense rainfall events, and milder winters leading to greater insect pest survival.
Now, researchers at the University of Illinois are suggesting that rising CO2 and ozone levels in the atmosphere, along with warmer temperatures, will make some crop diseases worse. Researcher Darin Eastburn looked at elevated carbon dioxide and ozone on soybean diseases like downy mildew, septoria brown spot and sudden death syndrome under normal field conditions.
He found that plants growing in a high-CO2 environment grew faster and larger and developed denser canopies. That favoured disease development because of lower light levels in the canopy and less air circulation – just the kind of conditions that fungal disease spores love.
Plants growing amid elevated ozone levels grew more slowly and less dense, resulting in less favourable conditions for pathogens. On the other hand, he said, ozone damages plant tissue and that can allow pathogens to enter the plants more easily.
"Elevated levels of carbon dioxide and ozone can make a plant more susceptible to some diseases, but less susceptible to others," Eastburn said in an article published by SciDev Net.
"In some cases, changes of only a few degrees have allowed plant diseases to become established earlier in the season, resulting in more severe disease epidemics. The ranges of some diseases are expanding as rising temperatures are allowing pathogens to overwinter in regions that were previously too cold for them."
He says farmers and plant breeders should start planning now for these eventualities.
Whichever side of the debate you're on, it might be the prudent thing to do.
Let’s put all scientific arguing aside for a minute. Let’s just assume that those who believe rising “greenhouse gas” levels are changing our climate are correct. Those climate change models have already predicted more extreme weather: infrequent but severe drought, more intense rainfall events, and milder winters leading to greater insect pest survival.
Now, researchers at the University of Illinois are suggesting that rising CO2 and ozone levels in the atmosphere, along with warmer temperatures, will make some crop diseases worse. Researcher Darin Eastburn looked at elevated carbon dioxide and ozone on soybean diseases like downy mildew, septoria brown spot and sudden death syndrome under normal field conditions.
He found that plants growing in a high-CO2 environment grew faster and larger and developed denser canopies. That favoured disease development because of lower light levels in the canopy and less air circulation – just the kind of conditions that fungal disease spores love.
Plants growing amid elevated ozone levels grew more slowly and less dense, resulting in less favourable conditions for pathogens. On the other hand, he said, ozone damages plant tissue and that can allow pathogens to enter the plants more easily.
"Elevated levels of carbon dioxide and ozone can make a plant more susceptible to some diseases, but less susceptible to others," Eastburn said in an article published by SciDev Net.
"In some cases, changes of only a few degrees have allowed plant diseases to become established earlier in the season, resulting in more severe disease epidemics. The ranges of some diseases are expanding as rising temperatures are allowing pathogens to overwinter in regions that were previously too cold for them."
He says farmers and plant breeders should start planning now for these eventualities.
Whichever side of the debate you're on, it might be the prudent thing to do.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
New year, different N strategy
What a difference a year makes. If we had seen this year’s early warmth and corresponding increase in residual soil nitrate levels in 2009, growers would have fallen all over themselves to cut back on N rates and save some input dollars.
Fast forward a year and we have what we could have only wished for last season. Just one difference: nitrogen prices are quite a bit lower. Do we still opt to cut back on the rate because pre-sidedress soil tests are telling us there’s ample N being mineralized? From what agronomists from across the province are telling me, it doesn’t look like it.
Instead, it seems growers are looking at the rapidly advancing crop, seeing the above-average yield potential and deciding to maximize crop performance. If that means putting on a few extra pounds of N, so be it. Just don’t do anything to short this crop.
Is it a good strategy? We won’t know until the season is over. As Pat Lynch keeps telling me: “When it comes to nitrogen, I’ll be able to tell you in December, with 90 per cent certainty, what we should have applied.” In other words, it’s a crap shoot.
And to be fair, a lot of growers make their nitrogen decision well ahead of sidedressing. That application method is not nearly as popular these days as it once was. So, knowing in mid-June that there’s more N in the soil than we thought isn’t going to benefit a lot of growers.
As for the ones that do sidedress, I hope they at least left a couple of reduced N strips in the field. It’s years like this that can teach us a lot about how to fine-tune one of the most puzzling crop inputs.
Fast forward a year and we have what we could have only wished for last season. Just one difference: nitrogen prices are quite a bit lower. Do we still opt to cut back on the rate because pre-sidedress soil tests are telling us there’s ample N being mineralized? From what agronomists from across the province are telling me, it doesn’t look like it.
Instead, it seems growers are looking at the rapidly advancing crop, seeing the above-average yield potential and deciding to maximize crop performance. If that means putting on a few extra pounds of N, so be it. Just don’t do anything to short this crop.
Is it a good strategy? We won’t know until the season is over. As Pat Lynch keeps telling me: “When it comes to nitrogen, I’ll be able to tell you in December, with 90 per cent certainty, what we should have applied.” In other words, it’s a crap shoot.
And to be fair, a lot of growers make their nitrogen decision well ahead of sidedressing. That application method is not nearly as popular these days as it once was. So, knowing in mid-June that there’s more N in the soil than we thought isn’t going to benefit a lot of growers.
As for the ones that do sidedress, I hope they at least left a couple of reduced N strips in the field. It’s years like this that can teach us a lot about how to fine-tune one of the most puzzling crop inputs.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
